Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE +100 VT -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | VT -0.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -1.4 (+3.4) | 143.9 (+8.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -1.0 (+3.0) | 142.6 (+9.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -0.7 (+2.7) | 145.0 (+7.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -0.5 (+2.5) | 144.1 (+7.9) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | WAKE 95 – 89 VT |
| Feb 21, 2026 | VT 82 – 63 WAKE |
| Jan 3, 2026 | WAKE 81 – 78 VT |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WAKE 72 – 63 VT |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VT 87 – 76 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#97) | 9.6 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#53) | 2.26 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#54) | 2.92 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#34) | 0.620 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 13.1% |
Game Analysis
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