Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | LAF +110 AMER -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +13 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -0.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.7 (-12.3) | 127.6 (-20.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -0.1 (-12.9) | 124.6 (-17.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -1.6 (-11.4) | 130.6 (-23.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -1.1 (-11.9) | 130.0 (-23.0) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 5-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-16 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#228) | 0.8 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#339) | 0.33 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#324) | 0.34 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#286) | 0.491 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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