Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -225 WKU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -10.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -6.9 (-1.9) | 144.0 (-19.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -7.8 (-2.8) | 141.1 (-16.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -7.5 (-2.5) | 143.5 (-18.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -7.3 (-2.3) | 144.2 (-19.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | WKU 82 – 80 MTSU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | WKU 65 – 60 MTSU |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTSU 87 – 77 WKU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 57 WKU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | WKU 85 – 54 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-11 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#117) | -2.5 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#122) | 0.04 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#130) | -0.42 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#108) | 0.489 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | WKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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