Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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80–43 on winners spread MAE 9.4 123 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
George Mason @ George Washington +3.7 143.4 62% 53–72 ✓
Cornell @ Princeton -0.9 155.2 41% 89–65 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Sacred Heart -0.6 144.1 41% 71–78 ✗
Yale @ Dartmouth -7.9 149.4 23% 83–70 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena +3.6 140.9 65% 74–62 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Rider -3.8 136.5 31% 65–55 ✓
Iona @ Canisius -6.4 134.7 24% 69–63 ✓
Brown @ Harvard +8.3 129.9 77% 53–56 ✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania +2.1 145.4 60% 67–76 ✓
Michigan State @ Wisconsin -1.8 146.5 47% 71–92 ✗
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago -18.5 150.7 12% 86–59 ✓
Massachusetts @ Akron +12.5 156.9 87% 92–99 ✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH) +12.9 160.4 86% 74–90 ✓
UNLV @ Boise State +12.7 156.7 87% 86–83 ✗
Hampton @ North Carolina A&T -1.1 139.4 43% 70–71 ✗
Clemson @ Duke +12.4 131.5 87% 54–67 ✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island +5.4 128.8 69% 70–66 ✗
TCU @ Oklahoma State +1.8 150.6 61% 95–92 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame +8.4 148.5 81% 74–89 ✓
California @ Boston College -3.6 133.1 36% 86–75 ✓
Navy @ Colgate +0.8 138.0 50% 84–80 ✗
Samford @ East Tennessee State +7.8 146.9 78% 82–72 ✗
UCLA @ Michigan +18.0 154.0 89% 56–86 ✓
Kansas @ Iowa State +6.5 144.9 75% 56–74 ✓
Northwestern @ Nebraska +13.2 144.5 88% 49–68 ✓
St. John's @ Providence -5.2 170.5 30% 79–69 ✓
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt +9.1 162.2 83% 69–82 ✓
Bucknell @ Boston University +5.6 145.7 77% 69–82 ✓
Long Island University @ New Haven -6.9 128.9 23% 52–55 ✗
Chicago State @ Le Moyne +6.3 139.8 68% 63–81 ✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire -2.7 139.0 32% 85–63 ✓
Furman @ VMI -11.8 141.3 16% 90–72 ✓
Mercer @ The Citadel -9.7 146.7 16% 70–54 ✓
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina +13.1 141.1 88% 65–79 ✓
East Carolina @ Rice +4.6 143.7 68% 85–75 ✗
Army @ American University +8.5 140.6 79% 63–75 ✓
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville +5.9 136.6 75% 58–57 ✗
High Point @ Gardner-Webb -16.3 155.1 12% 112–87 ✓
Florida State @ Virginia Tech +7.3 149.6 76% 92–69 ✗
SMU @ Syracuse -1.5 155.4 46% 78–79 ✗
North Dakota State @ North Dakota -5.8 150.5 32% 83–66 ✓
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan +5.1 144.8 77% 76–62 ✗
Kent State @ Ball State -6.9 139.5 28% 75–68 ✓
Wagner @ Stonehill +0.2 130.4 45% 68–57 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Saint Francis -4.4 136.1 30% 94–79 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson -0.6 135.2 48% 63–57 ✓
Bryant @ Vermont +11.0 135.6 85% 63–90 ✓
Elon @ William & Mary +8.1 159.3 82% 81–78 ✗
West Georgia @ Central Arkansas +11.1 150.3 86% 62–79 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast +8.4 147.3 84% 76–78 ✓
Liberty @ UTEP -6.2 136.8 26% 73–64 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International +3.5 141.2 65% 64–77 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Radford +1.5 159.7 65% 80–90 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton -2.6 141.9 43% 80–69 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida +9.8 151.0 81% 83–92 ✓
Penn State @ Oregon +5.1 144.2 76% 72–83 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +2.3 144.0 61% 75–82 ✓
Marquette @ Xavier +4.0 151.5 69% 88–96 ✓
NJIT @ Maine -1.5 135.7 31% 67–58 ✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State +12.8 145.9 88% 84–95 ✓
South Alabama @ Arkansas State +5.2 144.8 74% 92–88 ✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +9.7 143.9 85% 78–73 ✗
Delaware @ Missouri State +6.1 135.1 75% 76–67 ✗
Florida A&M @ Jackson State -0.1 143.3 47% 60–80 ✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion +4.0 141.8 68% 55–78 ✓
Georgia @ Oklahoma -2.2 164.5 44% 78–94 ✗
Tennessee State @ Morehead State -0.6 147.8 47% 86–94 ✗
Kansas State @ Houston +17.7 142.0 90% 64–78 ✓
Colorado @ BYU +10.9 159.4 87% 86–90 ✓
Louisville @ Baylor -5.7 158.4 33% 82–71 ✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State +2.8 138.1 68% 68–79 ✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure +0.6 154.7 54% 78–73 ✗
Stanford @ Wake Forest +3.0 151.5 66% 63–68 ✓
Miami @ NC State +5.2 158.6 75% 77–76 ✗
UAlbany @ Binghamton -3.5 134.3 35% 77–74 ✓
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington +3.2 136.3 62% 66–70 ✓
App State @ James Madison -0.3 132.9 45% 58–69 ✗
Portland State @ Northern Colorado +0.8 144.9 54% 65–77 ✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville +5.2 148.5 69% 56–63 ✓
Lipscomb @ Queens University +0.5 160.7 58% 81–87 ✓
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian -0.2 134.8 49% 59–73 ✗
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +9.0 134.5 84% 58–75 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama State +0.6 146.8 52% 61–79 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alcorn State -6.3 144.9 26% 55–57 ✗
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +1.7 133.6 56% 63–76 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State +0.5 129.9 59% 66–69 ✓
New Orleans @ Houston Christian -1.3 146.0 44% 60–61 ✗
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville +0.2 123.4 50% 81–76 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood +2.1 150.0 64% 73–61 ✗
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois +0.7 132.1 53% 72–78 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard +10.3 132.7 82% 53–79 ✓
Purdue @ Iowa +0.9 144.0 64% 78–57 ✗
Lehigh @ Lafayette +0.0 138.7 47% 78–69 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine -5.5 141.9 30% 89–90 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama A&M +15.2 135.7 89% 65–72 ✓
Grand Canyon @ San José State -8.4 137.3 22% 94–79 ✓
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central +10.8 142.5 87% 58–56 ✗
Air Force @ Fresno State +15.8 137.8 89% 63–93 ✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green +3.9 143.9 66% 70–80 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan +2.4 140.5 63% 46–88 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro -2.4 151.3 44% 89–99 ✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga -0.2 145.9 49% 81–76 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +5.6 145.1 74% 54–71 ✓
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word +2.1 148.7 62% 91–83 ✗
Idaho State @ Idaho +4.6 144.3 69% 69–99 ✓
Weber State @ Eastern Washington +0.7 157.3 64% 66–84 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana -1.1 138.4 37% 82–74 ✓
Sam Houston @ Kennesaw State -0.5 156.5 44% 83–79 ✓
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State +1.2 135.0 55% 79–70 ✗
Grambling @ Texas Southern -0.6 138.9 50% 79–82 ✗
Southern @ Prairie View A&M -0.7 157.5 44% 87–82 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.4 142.3 46% 66–57 ✓
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay +10.3 152.2 86% 70–90 ✓
VCU @ Richmond -5.0 150.7 33% 78–67 ✓
West Virginia @ UCF +4.7 138.0 72% 74–67 ✗
Brown @ Dartmouth +4.5 135.3 63% 79–76 ✗
Columbia @ Princeton -0.1 138.1 47% 75–65 ✓
Cornell @ Pennsylvania +0.7 161.0 54% 76–82 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M -11.2 138.5 17% 97–54 ✓
LSU @ Tennessee +11.2 148.2 87% 63–73 ✓
Texas Tech @ Arizona +11.0 153.0 84% 78–75 ✗
Yale @ Harvard -4.4 138.8 32% 76–75 ✓
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss +5.0 143.7 71% 90–78 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.