You'll work harder with a gun in your back, for a bowl of rice a day. "Holiday In Cambodia" - The Dead Kennedys
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–16 on winners spread MAE 9.0 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +9.1 135.8 80% 64–86 ✓
Murray State @ Indiana State -3.9 156.8 37% 74–72 ✓
Marist @ Merrimack +1.1 125.8 49% 56–81 ✓
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb -16.4 151.8 12% 103–85 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Longwood -0.7 140.7 48% 79–74 ✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern +3.8 146.9 61% 67–84 ✓
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate -10.4 151.8 17% 95–70 ✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State -2.1 153.8 44% 85–68 ✓
Youngstown State @ Oakland +5.5 153.7 73% 86–82 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State +9.7 149.1 84% 77–74 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay +3.1 145.4 66% 59–76 ✓
Central Connecticut @ New Haven -0.7 129.0 45% 81–76 ✓
Stonehill @ Chicago State -0.3 130.1 42% 55–68 ✗
Long Island University @ Wagner -5.1 140.5 27% 67–57 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Le Moyne +1.8 135.2 54% 57–58 ✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson +5.9 140.8 77% 59–66 ✓
Stony Brook @ Towson +3.6 135.0 59% 57–69 ✓
Hofstra @ Charleston -0.7 141.0 48% 66–62 ✓
Monmouth @ Drexel +2.0 134.1 58% 93–73 ✗
William & Mary @ Northeastern -4.5 158.2 34% 94–67 ✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington +7.9 150.2 81% 54–65 ✓
Georgia State @ James Madison +5.3 139.2 72% 79–81 ✓
Delaware @ Florida International +6.7 144.5 75% 68–66 ✗
UIC @ Drake +0.0 144.0 49% 80–70 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +4.7 143.5 64% 66–73 ✓
Evansville @ Southern Illinois +11.1 138.8 86% 60–86 ✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts +4.5 142.6 68% 60–69 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Omaha -4.7 151.0 30% 94–98 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana -1.9 135.2 38% 69–65 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +7.6 158.4 78% 79–95 ✓
Portland State @ Northern Arizona -7.3 135.9 21% 77–68 ✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss -0.0 137.7 43% 84–78 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville +0.9 133.5 49% 56–74 ✓
Little Rock @ Western Illinois -5.4 136.6 26% 77–58 ✓
UT Martin @ Lindenwood -0.4 135.9 37% 74–75 ✗
California Baptist @ Southern Utah -6.9 140.8 25% 83–66 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State +3.9 134.1 64% 79–78 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Belmont +5.6 133.4 67% 86–91 ✓
Oregon State @ San Francisco +6.9 141.9 76% 90–63 ✗
Memphis @ North Texas -2.7 135.9 36% 69–76 ✗
South Dakota State @ Denver +0.6 155.4 54% 61–79 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho +4.1 149.1 67% 83–72 ✗
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +2.3 148.2 67% 75–88 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Indiana -5.8 146.1 24% 73–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech -3.9 146.8 36% 77–81 ✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian -2.6 132.6 35% 63–67 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield -13.3 145.4 15% 89–74 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside -6.5 145.9 25% 76–68 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State -0.3 152.6 51% 86–82 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly -4.7 150.6 32% 73–79 ✗
UC Davis @ UC San Diego +4.6 140.9 69% 51–68 ✓
Manhattan @ Niagara +0.9 138.9 51% 76–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.