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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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76–43 on winners spread MAE 9.1 119 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Chicago State @ Ohio +10.8 143.9 83% 59–76 ✓
Colgate @ Loyola Maryland -6.0 144.5 30% 101–67 ✓
American University @ Lafayette -1.1 130.0 38% 60–47 ✓
Marist @ Fairfield +3.2 129.5 55% 54–73 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Vanderbilt +7.8 145.0 78% 55–93 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Texas A&M +11.0 142.8 85% 66–86 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ South Carolina +4.6 145.3 68% 64–74 ✓
North Alabama @ Jacksonville State +2.2 146.5 59% 66–62 ✗
Western Michigan @ Wisconsin +19.6 134.8 90% 66–76 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Houston Christian +2.1 160.4 64% 96–101 ✓
Coppin State @ Rutgers +23.7 144.4 91% 57–90 ✓
North Dakota State @ North Dakota +2.3 142.8 55% 71–49 ✗
USC @ Washington +1.2 142.9 53% 80–67 ✗
UCLA @ Washington State -7.8 134.9 21% 67–66 ✓
UConn @ Xavier -2.9 153.2 41% 73–83 ✗
Virginia @ Georgia Tech -3.0 132.9 36% 74–56 ✓
Texas Tech @ TCU +3.6 143.4 70% 61–67 ✓
Louisville @ Kentucky +22.8 142.2 90% 63–86 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest -0.5 144.1 53% 75–77 ✗
New Hampshire @ UAlbany +1.7 135.8 51% 67–51 ✗
Yale @ Columbia -14.6 132.0 18% 60–62 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Niagara +1.2 127.9 58% 55–67 ✓
St. John's @ Seton Hall +3.3 142.9 64% 66–88 ✓
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +5.0 148.0 70% 84–81 ✗
Charleston @ Towson -2.3 143.0 36% 76–74 ✓
Stony Brook @ Northeastern +7.4 133.0 74% 65–61 ✗
Florida State @ Duke +16.4 143.3 89% 67–86 ✓
Binghamton @ Bryant +13.0 154.8 86% 78–82 ✓
Harvard @ Princeton +6.9 136.9 76% 66–69 ✓
Saint Louis @ Saint Joseph's -2.0 148.4 42% 83–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne +7.6 141.1 81% 61–72 ✓
Samford @ The Citadel -1.6 142.8 45% 75–63 ✓
East Tennessee State @ VMI +0.7 143.0 36% 64–50 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Central Connecticut +1.4 131.8 60% 52–74 ✓
Merrimack @ Wagner +8.5 124.3 57% 58–48 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Long Island University -5.7 148.3 22% 82–64 ✓
Green Bay @ Oakland +8.9 141.8 85% 65–81 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Hofstra +10.9 150.3 83% 81–79 ✗
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +7.0 132.8 78% 65–72 ✓
UCF @ Houston +16.4 127.7 88% 65–71 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Kansas +9.1 140.5 85% 67–69 ✓
Arizona @ Arizona State -2.5 155.0 32% 69–60 ✓
Texas @ Oklahoma -0.7 141.9 46% 70–69 ✓
Baylor @ Iowa State +1.9 130.0 62% 62–77 ✓
Boston College @ Syracuse +7.4 138.5 78% 65–79 ✓
UIC @ Bradley +13.9 131.6 86% 45–79 ✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT -9.6 141.8 20% 67–64 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Charlotte +9.3 140.6 81% 66–68 ✓
Marquette @ Villanova -0.2 152.1 46% 68–66 ✓
Richmond @ George Mason +4.0 136.4 67% 58–62 ✓
Massachusetts @ St. Bonaventure +0.3 134.5 51% 64–83 ✓
La Salle @ VCU +11.9 139.5 86% 67–80 ✓
Dayton @ Davidson -1.3 130.9 42% 69–55 ✓
Nevada @ Air Force -1.5 134.9 42% 75–69 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah State +13.8 139.6 86% 54–67 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Arlington +0.3 139.6 52% 66–62 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +0.8 151.0 56% 60–62 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +9.3 134.0 83% 51–69 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +1.5 138.4 56% 80–73 ✗
Longwood @ Campbell -1.9 142.7 44% 67–42 ✓
Chattanooga @ Mercer +1.9 150.6 62% 80–51 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +0.9 132.1 60% 73–64 ✗
Louisiana @ Old Dominion +1.6 145.2 62% 66–70 ✓
James Madison @ Marshall +3.6 157.3 70% 72–66 ✗
South Alabama @ Georgia State -1.3 130.8 49% 58–68 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +1.1 132.9 55% 73–64 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota -0.1 148.5 48% 63–80 ✗
Kansas City @ Omaha +2.2 137.7 62% 75–59 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -8.0 129.2 22% 55–42 ✓
Elon @ Delaware +8.9 144.0 77% 52–57 ✓
William & Mary @ Drexel +6.7 131.4 78% 56–66 ✓
Hampton @ UNC Wilmington +17.9 144.8 90% 65–82 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Kennesaw State +11.5 147.2 87% 66–82 ✓
Austin Peay @ North Florida +3.4 143.7 66% 85–90 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +5.3 151.7 68% 76–71 ✗
Rider @ Canisius +0.2 146.5 45% 66–64 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State +1.0 135.3 57% 66–60 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Southern Utah +11.4 162.8 87% 88–94 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Charleston Southern +3.0 146.9 64% 85–90 ✓
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +5.6 132.4 68% 84–72 ✗
App State @ Southern Miss +15.9 137.9 88% 70–76 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota State +0.1 145.7 51% 64–71 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Denver -8.8 158.2 23% 80–62 ✓
Cleveland State @ Robert Morris +1.7 132.4 61% 63–54 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northwestern State +3.8 147.2 69% 65–59 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State -2.8 143.4 35% 73–82 ✗
East Carolina @ Wichita State +7.1 129.4 77% 79–69 ✗
Florida International @ North Texas +17.9 129.3 89% 57–72 ✓
Utah @ Stanford +0.1 136.4 49% 71–66 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +7.3 144.2 79% 60–65 ✓
UTSA @ UAB +19.9 158.8 90% 67–90 ✓
Rice @ UTEP +0.8 148.7 59% 72–67 ✗
George Washington @ Loyola Chicago +3.4 141.0 66% 97–87 ✗
San José State @ Colorado State +3.6 138.3 65% 78–70 ✗
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian +1.6 143.6 60% 63–69 ✓
Utah Tech @ Utah Valley +6.7 148.7 75% 60–71 ✓
Furman @ Western Carolina -5.5 148.2 34% 67–79 ✗
Stonehill @ Saint Francis -0.1 149.1 50% 72–73 ✗
UC Irvine @ Cal State Bakersfield -8.0 131.5 19% 79–75 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Weber State +6.1 141.7 76% 60–76 ✓
Idaho @ Montana +5.4 147.8 73% 56–67 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana State +6.3 142.8 75% 70–67 ✗
Queens University @ Eastern Kentucky -1.5 148.4 45% 83–88 ✗
New Mexico @ Wyoming -7.3 148.8 24% 76–75 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV +2.4 140.3 62% 76–67 ✗
Morehead State @ UT Martin +3.9 146.3 66% 57–64 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois -1.7 147.7 46% 80–91 ✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee State +2.4 154.8 65% 69–94 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood +0.9 138.9 51% 64–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga +13.9 157.9 86% 88–111 ✓
McNeese @ Lamar +0.0 139.0 49% 81–62 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Pacific -3.7 149.0 33% 72–78 ✗
Troy @ Texas State -3.6 134.1 40% 55–52 ✓
Portland State @ Sacramento State +2.9 148.8 68% 63–74 ✓
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M +5.6 139.1 72% 74–82 ✓
Colorado @ California -10.7 135.6 22% 76–80 ✗
Sam Houston @ New Mexico State -0.9 138.8 48% 75–62 ✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U +5.6 139.0 74% 65–71 ✓
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State +0.8 152.2 55% 73–72 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.