I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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51–24 on winners spread MAE 8.4 75 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Binghamton @ Cornell +18.9 152.7 89% 70–86 ✓
UTSA @ Louisiana Tech +8.6 148.6 82% 69–91 ✓
Rice @ Western Kentucky +1.7 154.1 59% 81–78 ✗
Iowa @ Nebraska +0.3 147.2 58% 50–66 ✓
Central Michigan @ Michigan +13.5 147.0 86% 63–61 ✗
UMBC @ Maryland +16.7 144.0 88% 64–80 ✓
VMI @ Furman +10.9 154.5 86% 62–85 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Wofford +6.4 138.2 59% 73–71 ✗
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -4.6 149.7 39% 68–76 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis +0.0 144.1 50% 72–80 ✓
Merrimack @ Fairleigh Dickinson +7.1 139.7 74% 63–71 ✓
Arkansas State @ Old Dominion +9.6 131.6 82% 60–57 ✗
James Madison @ Georgia State -9.4 145.7 20% 63–47 ✓
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina -1.7 151.3 45% 76–77 ✗
App State @ Marshall +12.8 143.6 85% 53–79 ✓
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky +1.7 138.6 62% 64–78 ✓
Milwaukee @ Oakland -4.1 152.4 40% 61–83 ✗
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +15.6 142.9 89% 59–76 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Robert Morris -0.0 135.3 45% 70–75 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Northeastern +3.7 137.9 71% 76–88 ✓
Hampton @ Charleston +20.1 151.7 91% 61–89 ✓
Hofstra @ Delaware +1.4 147.6 59% 87–73 ✗
UTEP @ UAB +14.0 148.1 87% 73–79 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +4.6 151.6 69% 68–75 ✓
South Florida @ Memphis +12.8 145.3 86% 86–93 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Murray State -0.1 135.4 50% 63–57 ✓
Evansville @ Indiana State +11.5 147.2 86% 63–91 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas +2.7 126.6 41% 50–46 ✗
Georgetown @ DePaul +3.2 154.9 70% 76–83 ✓
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State +6.6 138.7 76% 63–70 ✓
Sam Houston @ Utah Valley -0.4 136.5 52% 64–80 ✗
California Baptist @ Grand Canyon +5.4 130.4 68% 59–73 ✓
Troy @ Southern Miss +8.1 146.8 81% 60–64 ✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State +10.6 136.7 83% 57–53 ✗
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern -3.1 133.4 43% 50–64 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State +2.5 145.9 61% 64–71 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota -7.3 147.6 29% 84–92 ✗
Oral Roberts @ Omaha -10.6 151.8 19% 92–89 ✓
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +6.8 144.3 76% 71–85 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +9.2 133.1 82% 59–71 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Illinois +26.9 147.8 91% 52–85 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ SIU Edwardsville +12.4 142.6 86% 51–64 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Southern Indiana +3.8 153.5 72% 81–86 ✓
UT Martin @ Little Rock -0.1 155.8 52% 74–88 ✗
Lindenwood @ Eastern Illinois +4.4 144.4 72% 54–55 ✓
Tulane @ Cincinnati +7.5 152.2 77% 77–88 ✓
Valparaiso @ Drake +13.1 141.0 86% 63–68 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Tech +13.2 156.0 87% 66–81 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Portland +2.8 149.0 59% 92–72 ✗
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +16.4 143.2 87% 58–85 ✓
BYU @ Pacific -0.2 151.8 49% 69–49 ✓
Kansas City @ Denver +4.0 137.1 66% 83–85 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State +2.8 142.9 60% 83–75 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Fullerton -1.4 132.9 42% 66–58 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Weber State +3.5 144.7 67% 72–81 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State +0.9 146.2 58% 53–79 ✓
Idaho @ Montana State +7.1 145.7 76% 58–72 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana +5.6 141.4 70% 87–80 ✗
Utah @ California -12.1 132.2 17% 58–43 ✓
San Francisco @ Santa Clara +2.4 146.0 63% 67–79 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly +3.4 129.8 62% 57–67 ✓
UC San Diego @ Long Beach State +9.1 139.4 81% 85–83 ✗
Colorado @ Stanford +1.3 144.8 54% 73–70 ✗
UC Davis @ Hawai'i +6.6 139.6 77% 66–74 ✓
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh +1.4 154.5 58% 74–76 ✓
Miami @ Notre Dame -3.4 149.4 35% 76–65 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross -5.1 138.4 32% 58–60 ✗
Navy @ Boston University +1.4 141.0 56% 75–58 ✗
Manhattan @ Saint Peter's +4.9 137.7 66% 57–67 ✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb +2.3 147.1 67% 86–80 ✗
NC State @ Clemson +2.6 152.3 61% 64–78 ✓
Siena @ Quinnipiac +4.7 140.6 66% 83–76 ✗
Lehigh @ Army +5.3 144.5 77% 78–80 ✓
Buffalo @ Michigan State +14.2 145.4 85% 68–89 ✓
Morgan State @ Hartford -8.4 135.0 17% 61–54 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.