Really don't mind if you sit this one out. "Thick as a Brick" - Jethro Tull
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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90–36 on winners spread MAE 8.3 126 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Saint Louis +9.5 167.6 80% 75–88 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Iona +2.3 145.7 58% 64–72 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairfield +5.4 159.8 69% 68–78 ✓
Princeton @ Brown +1.2 130.0 54% 71–80 ✓
Milwaukee @ Detroit Mercy +3.6 155.8 63% 86–91 ✓
Green Bay @ Oakland +7.3 160.6 75% 73–68 ✗
Niagara @ Mount St. Mary's +7.1 131.8 74% 63–76 ✓
Canisius @ Rider +1.1 129.9 54% 72–66 ✗
Marist @ Manhattan -8.2 143.7 23% 84–70 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +9.7 152.2 81% 64–93 ✓
Siena @ Merrimack +2.8 130.9 60% 72–79 ✓
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) +8.3 158.0 77% 77–91 ✓
Florida @ Ole Miss -12.5 146.6 13% 94–75 ✓
Creighton @ St. John's +12.8 155.5 88% 52–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Howard +14.7 143.6 91% 67–100 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +12.1 142.8 86% 61–75 ✓
East Carolina @ Charlotte +7.9 148.1 76% 56–68 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota +9.0 136.3 79% 61–80 ✓
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech +3.0 156.9 61% 63–82 ✓
Florida State @ Clemson +10.4 147.3 83% 70–65 ✗
Cincinnati @ Kansas +12.2 135.1 87% 84–68 ✗
North Carolina @ Syracuse -4.6 153.6 34% 77–64 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +10.7 151.3 84% 79–92 ✓
UAlbany @ UMBC +8.4 142.7 78% 62–66 ✓
Western Carolina @ VMI -10.0 157.6 18% 81–62 ✓
Chattanooga @ The Citadel -3.7 141.9 37% 93–72 ✓
Texas State @ Louisiana -2.3 130.4 42% 54–67 ✗
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina -2.1 152.9 42% 75–79 ✗
Georgia Southern @ App State +7.5 145.9 75% 74–89 ✓
Mississippi State @ South Carolina +1.4 151.0 55% 89–97 ✓
Xavier @ Butler +5.7 164.8 70% 75–80 ✓
Navy @ Army -10.2 142.5 18% 81–63 ✓
Penn State @ Nebraska +19.7 148.4 96% 64–87 ✓
Miami @ Virginia +7.2 150.7 74% 83–86 ✓
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt +3.6 154.3 63% 69–65 ✗
Duquesne @ Dayton +6.6 155.8 72% 66–78 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham -1.5 128.0 45% 59–63 ✗
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh -0.2 139.9 49% 68–73 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +10.7 155.9 83% 98–101 ✓
Dartmouth @ Columbia +7.3 154.2 75% 64–63 ✗
Kansas City @ North Dakota State +22.2 147.9 98% 59–95 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Chicago State -3.8 144.8 37% 51–70 ✗
Harvard @ Cornell +4.6 163.9 66% 73–54 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Yale +11.6 156.6 85% 70–74 ✓
Wagner @ Saint Francis -2.9 157.5 40% 65–56 ✓
Long Island University @ Mercyhurst -2.6 136.1 41% 83–91 ✗
Le Moyne @ Stonehill -3.2 136.0 39% 68–77 ✗
Hofstra @ Northeastern -9.3 153.2 20% 82–68 ✓
Samford @ Mercer +5.8 158.8 70% 86–89 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Florida Gulf Coast -2.5 156.5 41% 71–75 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +3.4 143.6 62% 53–80 ✓
Delaware @ Middle Tennessee +9.4 139.5 80% 66–78 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Louisville +25.0 161.5 99% 70–87 ✓
Kansas State @ Texas Tech +16.2 160.8 93% 72–100 ✓
Rhode Island @ La Salle -4.6 132.7 34% 46–59 ✗
Arizona @ Houston +1.5 142.8 56% 73–66 ✗
Valparaiso @ UIC +7.0 137.1 74% 71–67 ✗
Washington @ Maryland -7.8 148.0 24% 60–64 ✗
UNLV @ Air Force -14.5 151.3 9% 91–66 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +9.3 151.8 80% 83–91 ✓
Ohio @ Northern Illinois -4.0 148.2 36% 74–66 ✓
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe -15.0 169.2 9% 102–94 ✓
Old Dominion @ Southern Miss +3.0 149.1 61% 81–86 ✓
West Georgia @ Queens University +10.9 167.2 84% 84–91 ✓
Utah Valley @ UT Arlington -4.4 139.1 34% 66–54 ✓
Missouri State @ Florida International +4.8 158.3 67% 67–70 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Colorado +2.5 169.9 59% 69–83 ✓
Texas @ Georgia +3.5 173.8 63% 80–91 ✓
North Florida @ Stetson +2.9 165.9 60% 71–76 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston +10.1 145.8 82% 78–82 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia State -1.5 143.3 45% 80–65 ✓
Missouri @ Arkansas +13.0 164.9 88% 86–94 ✓
Evansville @ Murray State +17.1 158.3 94% 75–88 ✓
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +11.7 145.5 86% 71–90 ✓
Arizona State @ Baylor +6.6 162.7 72% 68–73 ✓
Oregon @ USC +8.4 152.4 78% 71–70 ✗
Winthrop @ High Point +9.8 167.5 81% 87–89 ✓
Longwood @ Charleston Southern +6.0 158.6 71% 107–96 ✗
San José State @ Boise State +16.3 148.6 93% 69–84 ✓
Boston College @ SMU +16.7 149.9 94% 70–94 ✓
Maine @ New Hampshire +3.8 129.9 64% 61–58 ✗
Monmouth @ Charleston +5.0 145.1 67% 63–74 ✓
Hampton @ Stony Brook +5.8 135.8 70% 72–79 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Campbell -4.0 150.8 36% 73–68 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro -8.9 153.6 21% 87–75 ✓
Troy @ South Alabama -0.8 150.1 47% 54–65 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Little Rock -3.5 145.4 37% 70–65 ✓
Lindenwood @ Tennessee Tech -1.7 153.5 44% 57–72 ✗
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +6.3 144.9 72% 83–87 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Liberty +8.6 150.2 78% 94–73 ✗
Radford @ UNC Asheville +4.1 150.3 65% 73–74 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Coppin State -4.9 133.4 33% 65–71 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ SE Louisiana -5.8 133.4 30% 96–75 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +2.7 138.7 60% 53–71 ✓
Morehead State @ Western Illinois -8.4 145.5 22% 81–59 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Eastern Illinois +5.1 132.8 68% 70–68 ✗
Jackson State @ Alcorn State +2.1 155.0 58% 65–83 ✓
Delaware State @ Morgan State +5.7 142.6 70% 68–82 ✓
West Virginia @ TCU +4.0 132.4 64% 54–60 ✓
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +2.6 152.9 59% 70–83 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo +6.8 147.2 73% 75–94 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Riverside -3.5 149.2 38% 78–73 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Portland State +6.9 150.1 73% 67–55 ✗
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +2.0 151.9 57% 80–72 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Kennesaw State +7.1 147.7 74% 55–58 ✓
Presbyterian @ South Carolina Upstate +2.6 138.1 59% 74–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +15.7 151.6 92% 51–73 ✓
UConn @ Villanova -1.8 140.0 44% 73–63 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +6.6 142.8 73% 76–85 ✓
Alabama @ LSU -5.3 175.5 31% 90–83 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +6.8 127.0 73% 59–57 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego -1.4 151.4 45% 77–65 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond +4.3 153.8 65% 94–99 ✓
Temple @ Wichita State +9.2 146.2 80% 57–69 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +2.9 147.0 60% 73–87 ✓
San Diego State @ Colorado State -2.7 143.5 40% 74–83 ✗
Stanford @ California +4.0 149.2 64% 66–72 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Denver -4.0 168.5 36% 80–82 ✗
Buffalo @ Massachusetts +3.7 162.4 63% 86–82 ✗
Nicholls @ Stephen F. Austin +15.1 147.2 92% 78–81 ✓
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M +1.5 146.4 55% 82–73 ✗
Montana State @ Idaho State -3.1 144.3 39% 76–91 ✗
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +7.0 135.6 74% 47–51 ✓
Michigan @ Duke -2.0 153.9 43% 63–68 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +3.2 164.3 61% 82–84 ✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M +0.2 144.6 51% 63–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.