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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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83–36 on winners spread MAE 9.2 119 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Xavier @ Butler	-5.0	148.5	33%	67–69	✗
Marist @ Saint Peter's	+3.0	121.3	61%	56–67	✓
Fairfield @ Rider	+7.2	130.1	74%	57–58	✓
Quinnipiac @ Niagara	-2.5	131.4	41%	73–79	✗
Siena @ Mount St. Mary's	-3.0	129.8	39%	72–65	✓
Iona @ Canisius	-10.7	146.3	16%	80–59	✓
VMI @ East Tennessee State	+11.6	138.8	85%	65–69	✓
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	-2.8	153.1	40%	81–72	✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State	+7.8	130.2	76%	55–57	✓
Akron @ Ohio	-0.0	141.0	50%	81–90	✗
Saint Louis @ Dayton	+6.6	136.5	73%	56–70	✓
New Mexico @ Air Force	-6.7	144.5	27%	77–89	✗
Northern Kentucky @ Wright State	+5.3	141.4	68%	65–83	✓
Fresno State @ Nevada	+13.6	126.3	89%	66–77	✓
West Virginia @ Texas	+5.9	151.0	71%	60–94	✓
Marquette @ Georgetown	-13.2	156.7	11%	89–75	✓
Providence @ St. John's	-3.2	157.4	38%	68–73	✗
NC State @ Boston College	-7.0	142.0	26%	92–62	✓
Colgate @ Bucknell	-7.2	146.6	26%	76–56	✓
Pittsburgh @ Florida State	-6.3	145.8	28%	83–75	✓
Penn State @ Maryland	+7.3	136.2	75%	68–74	✓
Kentucky @ Georgia	-4.7	141.8	34%	68–75	✗
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne	+7.8	135.5	76%	54–56	✓
Kansas @ Oklahoma	-2.6	139.9	41%	78–55	✓
Boston University @ Lafayette	+4.2	121.9	65%	65–69	✓
Bryant @ UMBC	+0.4	163.1	51%	73–76	✓
South Carolina @ Ole Miss	+12.4	131.1	87%	64–61	✗
George Washington @ Saint Joseph's	+4.8	157.1	67%	69–81	✓
Long Island University @ Wagner	+15.9	134.4	93%	46–58	✓
Bellarmine @ Queens University	+6.9	141.4	73%	88–84	✗
Army @ Navy	+6.0	143.6	71%	53–70	✓
UConn @ Creighton	+1.0	143.6	54%	53–56	✓
Rutgers @ Illinois	+1.7	129.1	56%	60–69	✓
Holy Cross @ American University	+10.8	130.7	84%	74–66	✗
Indiana State @ Northern Iowa	-3.2	146.8	39%	80–62	✓
UIC @ Belmont	+12.7	146.7	88%	71–98	✓
Murray State @ Bradley	+13.9	137.8	90%	48–83	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida Atlantic	+14.0	142.2	90%	85–90	✓
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame	-6.1	143.1	29%	93–87	✓
UAlbany @ Binghamton	+7.3	139.9	75%	66–80	✓
Pennsylvania @ Harvard	+3.0	136.9	61%	80–72	✗
Princeton @ Dartmouth	-7.4	141.4	25%	76–83	✗
Cornell @ Brown	-1.7	156.2	44%	66–80	✗
Rhode Island @ George Mason	+7.0	133.0	74%	67–75	✓
Massachusetts @ La Salle	+0.7	145.9	53%	72–86	✓
UNC Asheville @ Presbyterian	-6.7	135.1	27%	76–72	✓
Campbell @ Gardner-Webb	+8.8	125.7	79%	73–77	✓
Western Carolina @ Furman	+14.3	154.0	90%	59–93	✓
Bowling Green @ Ball State	+10.3	149.9	83%	72–93	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Stonehill	+7.6	129.0	75%	51–62	✓
Marshall @ Georgia State	-9.5	143.0	20%	88–77	✓
James Madison @ Coastal Carolina	-10.1	153.7	18%	73–66	✓
Omaha @ North Dakota	+5.1	145.1	68%	73–76	✓
Denver @ North Dakota State	+8.1	149.3	77%	70–78	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook	-0.2	136.7	49%	59–69	✗
William & Mary @ Elon	+3.1	138.3	61%	55–66	✓
Towson @ Drexel	+0.9	126.3	53%	66–73	✓
Hofstra @ Monmouth	-15.2	138.0	8%	86–57	✓
Stetson @ North Florida	-2.5	154.5	41%	81–92	✗
Southern Illinois @ Drake	+6.7	126.8	73%	59–82	✓
Alabama @ Auburn	-4.6	150.8	34%	77–69	✓
Clemson @ North Carolina	+7.5	148.8	75%	71–91	✓
Fordham @ Davidson	+3.8	140.3	63%	73–71	✗
The Citadel @ Samford	+15.2	146.2	92%	70–76	✓
Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern	+8.2	126.1	77%	53–68	✓
Oral Roberts @ Western Illinois	-14.2	154.2	10%	82–73	✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida	+10.0	139.2	82%	88–80	✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga	+6.6	141.7	73%	56–73	✓
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH)	+5.4	143.1	69%	66–60	✗
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss	+16.7	136.2	94%	67–76	✓
Baylor @ TCU	+1.8	150.2	57%	72–68	✗
UNLV @ San Diego State	+10.5	143.3	83%	71–82	✓
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+7.0	136.7	74%	74–71	✗
Howard @ Delaware State	-4.5	138.6	34%	86–85	✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State	+2.4	174.2	59%	84–94	✓
Maine @ NJIT	-1.5	137.8	45%	50–65	✗
UTEP @ UTSA	-4.3	137.3	35%	77–66	✓
Middle Tennessee @ UAB	+8.7	154.0	79%	69–92	✓
Norfolk State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+0.6	139.2	52%	76–73	✗
Wisconsin @ Nebraska	-0.3	123.2	49%	63–73	✗
Loyola Chicago @ Richmond	+10.0	134.5	82%	71–74	✓
Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois	+6.5	146.4	72%	53–81	✓
Merrimack @ Saint Francis	+3.6	130.3	63%	75–68	✗
Charleston @ Hampton	-17.4	153.1	6%	83–70	✓
Cal Poly @ Cal State Northridge	+1.9	117.9	57%	53–64	✓
Portland State @ Northern Arizona	+3.4	154.3	62%	88–87	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville	+0.5	126.4	52%	62–51	✗
Duke @ Virginia	+5.0	123.1	68%	62–69	✓
Jackson State @ Florida A&M	-2.6	132.6	41%	69–58	✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central	+8.8	143.4	79%	63–83	✓
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+16.7	147.9	94%	52–61	✓
Nicholls @ SE Louisiana	+2.0	153.2	57%	88–77	✗
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State	+10.3	141.2	83%	64–72	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State	+3.6	148.6	63%	53–67	✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville	+13.8	135.2	90%	84–73	✗
Little Rock @ UT Martin	+7.9	162.0	76%	61–84	✓
Austin Peay @ Central Arkansas	+3.0	148.8	61%	69–76	✓
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman	-2.9	144.8	39%	76–74	✓
Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest	+13.9	147.4	90%	70–71	✓
McNeese @ LSU New Orleans	-0.3	148.1	49%	79–78	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Winthrop	+5.6	143.7	70%	79–70	✗
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+4.9	150.2	67%	77–73	✗
Louisiana @ Troy	+0.6	147.3	52%	65–80	✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State	+1.4	124.8	55%	70–68	✗
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State	+5.0	144.0	67%	65–59	✗
Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State	+11.0	138.1	84%	71–74	✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word	+6.2	152.4	71%	84–78	✗
Texas Southern @ Grambling	+10.9	136.6	84%	46–65	✓
Radford @ Charleston Southern	-3.2	139.8	39%	90–71	✓
Missouri @ Tennessee	+16.0	144.5	93%	86–85	✗
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State	+6.0	122.7	71%	64–56	✗
Saint Mary's @ Portland	-12.3	135.9	13%	81–64	✓
Indiana @ Michigan	-1.7	147.7	44%	62–61	✓
USC @ Oregon State	-7.4	129.0	25%	58–61	✗
Charlotte @ North Texas	+5.0	105.7	68%	43–67	✓
Mississippi State @ Arkansas	+6.5	124.3	72%	70–64	✗
App State @ South Alabama	+5.1	126.5	68%	57–74	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Southern	+5.5	137.4	69%	65–79	✓
Eastern Washington @ Idaho	-4.5	152.5	34%	73–66	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.