That man could give a fuck about the grin on your face as you walk by randy as a goat. "Never Say Never" - Romeo Void
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–14 on winners spread MAE 7.4 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Kansas State @ Texas Tech -1.5 145.9 45% 63–71 ✗
Louisville @ Miami +24.0 146.7 99% 85–93 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -2.6 136.1 41% 70–68 ✓
Tulsa @ UCF +19.2 141.2 96% 52–96 ✓
South Florida @ Cincinnati +11.2 146.0 85% 65–84 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lehigh +8.7 133.9 79% 91–82 ✗
Illinois State @ Valparaiso +2.1 137.6 57% 76–81 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont +4.3 139.5 65% 81–93 ✓
Columbia @ Yale +24.3 136.0 99% 68–99 ✓
Rice @ Florida International +1.6 156.5 56% 85–78 ✗
Sam Houston @ Abilene Christian -5.4 137.0 31% 77–62 ✓
Longwood @ High Point -6.6 145.6 28% 70–67 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Santa Clara +3.7 150.2 63% 69–71 ✓
South Dakota @ South Dakota State +12.5 140.4 87% 67–72 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay -13.3 143.8 11% 76–71 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee +7.5 156.1 75% 77–80 ✓
Northeastern @ UNC Wilmington +10.3 130.2 83% 59–71 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Liberty +14.6 135.7 91% 73–83 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley -5.0 155.9 33% 82–72 ✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan -9.6 173.7 19% 70–63 ✓
Arizona @ Stanford -7.6 153.3 24% 79–88 ✗
Arizona State @ California -9.2 127.6 20% 70–62 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +1.4 128.1 55% 54–58 ✓
Wyoming @ Boise State +16.1 133.3 93% 63–75 ✓
Southern Utah @ Utah Valley +6.7 155.0 73% 83–90 ✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas +5.7 135.4 70% 43–73 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +2.8 145.0 60% 54–70 ✓
Montana State @ Idaho State -4.4 134.8 34% 58–52 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Alabama -1.9 150.5 43% 70–80 ✗
Texas A&M @ LSU -5.4 136.2 31% 74–62 ✓
Tarleton State @ Utah Tech +4.8 143.7 67% 75–71 ✗
Lindenwood @ Southern Indiana +9.5 147.4 81% 64–74 ✓
Montana @ Weber State +1.2 127.1 55% 74–69 ✗
UCLA @ Oregon -4.6 133.2 34% 70–63 ✓
BYU @ Gonzaga +11.9 155.3 86% 81–88 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +4.8 134.2 67% 62–73 ✓
Utah State @ San José State -3.3 143.5 38% 64–69 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U +2.3 138.2 58% 58–63 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Francisco +8.7 157.8 78% 80–88 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific +4.7 164.7 67% 94–99 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Bakersfield -4.8 141.7 33% 79–69 ✓
UC Davis @ UC Santa Barbara +6.8 141.3 73% 74–84 ✓
Washington @ Washington State +8.2 136.6 77% 51–56 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine +8.2 143.5 77% 64–83 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Hawai'i +4.2 125.4 65% 52–51 ✗
Temple @ Memphis +11.0 150.0 84% 77–86 ✓
Iona @ Niagara -7.5 132.4 25% 72–55 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Canisius -5.7 146.5 30% 65–85 ✗
Iowa @ Minnesota -11.9 149.4 14% 68–56 ✓
Michigan State @ Ohio State +5.2 138.1 68% 62–41 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Northern Kentucky +16.7 128.8 94% 47–86 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +5.6 132.9 69% 71–64 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State -1.1 148.5 46% 78–81 ✗
Purdue @ Northwestern -3.6 127.9 37% 58–64 ✗
Missouri State @ Evansville -8.9 128.7 21% 66–60 ✓
Marist @ Siena +12.0 130.5 86% 65–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan +3.5 130.5 63% 52–68 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Fairfield +6.0 122.7 71% 72–76 ✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro +10.2 133.1 82% 89–97 ✓
SMU @ Wichita State +8.0 134.7 77% 89–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.