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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–16 on winners spread MAE 7.5 61 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Iowa @ Purdue	+9.1	151.8	80%	73–87	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International	-0.4	145.8	49%	62–66	✗
Rice @ Florida Atlantic	+16.9	154.9	94%	81–90	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford	+4.6	124.3	66%	61–48	✗
Stonehill @ Merrimack	+1.6	121.7	56%	43–56	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University	-8.7	161.7	21%	80–79	✓
James Madison @ Georgia Southern	-6.2	140.9	29%	73–76	✗
Old Dominion @ Georgia State	-0.5	128.1	48%	63–60	✓
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina	-11.7	156.4	14%	92–74	✓
Kansas City @ Western Illinois	+2.4	131.5	59%	76–64	✗
Bellarmine @ Liberty	+17.0	122.4	94%	50–70	✓
Stetson @ Jacksonville	-0.2	130.7	49%	70–67	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Queens University	+2.8	155.1	60%	84–80	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida	-1.5	149.8	45%	68–66	✓
UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+4.7	146.9	67%	64–58	✗
App State @ UL Monroe	-1.2	128.3	46%	52–45	✓
Morehead State @ Little Rock	+0.1	144.6	51%	68–72	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky	-0.2	139.6	49%	89–93	✗
UAB @ North Texas	+3.4	129.6	62%	79–82	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls	+13.8	153.9	90%	59–84	✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State	+6.2	137.1	71%	69–63	✗
Arkansas State @ Texas State	+8.7	120.4	79%	62–66	✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas	-9.4	155.3	20%	95–88	✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State	+7.9	148.2	76%	58–84	✓
Denver @ North Dakota	+2.0	146.9	57%	63–86	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood	-5.7	136.7	30%	63–58	✓
Oakland @ Green Bay	-9.6	143.3	19%	59–47	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee	+2.8	158.1	60%	89–94	✓
Portland State @ Northern Colorado	+3.3	160.3	62%	79–88	✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona	+0.6	139.1	52%	55–77	✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+17.5	163.6	94%	68–91	✓
SE Louisiana @ McNeese	-1.5	149.3	45%	66–69	✗
Lamar @ Incarnate Word	+6.9	138.2	73%	68–59	✗
Louisiana @ Southern Miss	+5.6	150.1	69%	71–82	✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois	-3.0	145.8	39%	75–77	✗
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State	-4.2	141.1	35%	54–52	✓
Austin Peay @ North Alabama	+6.6	143.8	73%	57–70	✓
UCLA @ Oregon State	-16.0	121.8	7%	62–47	✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga	+14.1	157.8	90%	81–99	✓
Charlotte @ UTEP	-1.1	120.6	46%	62–53	✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M	-3.0	138.5	39%	88–82	✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah	+9.5	151.7	81%	62–72	✓
Pacific @ Portland	+5.5	160.5	69%	73–81	✓
South Alabama @ Troy	+4.2	135.4	65%	57–61	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State	+0.2	157.5	51%	65–85	✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech	+0.9	153.2	53%	69–84	✓
UC Davis @ UC Riverside	+2.3	148.6	58%	65–72	✓
Montana State @ Weber State	-3.3	125.6	38%	63–73	✗
Montana @ Idaho State	-0.1	136.1	50%	69–61	✓
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas	-6.6	155.3	28%	93–81	✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount	-8.5	128.5	22%	74–78	✗
Arizona State @ Stanford	+0.7	137.5	53%	69–65	✗
San Diego @ Santa Clara	+12.0	162.5	86%	75–80	✓
BYU @ Pepperdine	-5.0	151.9	33%	80–92	✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield	+4.2	118.2	65%	58–73	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine	+17.1	130.3	94%	54–55	✓
Arizona @ California	-16.9	142.1	6%	85–62	✓
USC @ Oregon	+3.5	142.0	63%	60–78	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State	+0.6	149.3	52%	75–72	✗
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i	+12.7	129.3	88%	62–69	✓
Kent State @ Buffalo	-5.3	148.9	32%	72–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.