And Harry doesn't mind if he doesn't make the scene. "Sultans of Swing" - Dire Straits
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–13 on winners spread MAE 7.7 53 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt -13.6 131.4 11% 65–66 ✗
Iowa State @ West Virginia +3.0 133.6 61% 71–76 ✓
Memphis @ South Florida -4.6 152.7 34% 99–81 ✓
Lehigh @ Colgate +12.3 148.5 87% 53–81 ✓
American University @ Boston University +0.2 130.7 51% 54–60 ✓
Belmont @ Missouri State +2.2 137.6 58% 59–61 ✓
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +15.9 148.9 93% 62–84 ✓
Syracuse @ Florida State -2.9 149.7 39% 76–67 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech +2.0 136.4 57% 68–70 ✓
Boston College @ Virginia Tech +14.4 137.1 91% 82–76 ✗
Vermont @ Maine -2.6 135.1 40% 74–65 ✓
NJIT @ UMBC +10.2 147.0 82% 63–72 ✓
Bryant @ UAlbany -8.3 157.1 23% 87–62 ✓
Binghamton @ New Hampshire +6.6 129.2 73% 66–64 ✗
Bucknell @ Navy +9.3 137.7 80% 65–71 ✓
Richmond @ George Washington -0.0 143.2 50% 105–107 ✗
Massachusetts @ Fordham +5.5 145.6 69% 67–77 ✓
La Salle @ St. Bonaventure +8.0 133.3 77% 76–70 ✗
George Mason @ Duquesne +5.4 139.5 69% 52–75 ✓
Presbyterian @ Longwood +14.5 128.9 91% 46–66 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate +1.8 145.1 57% 60–77 ✓
High Point @ Campbell +6.5 146.5 72% 66–82 ✓
Western Carolina @ Wofford +4.7 144.6 66% 95–91 ✗
Samford @ Mercer -2.3 140.6 42% 70–69 ✓
Furman @ VMI -13.6 152.0 11% 94–63 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +11.8 148.1 86% 63–82 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State +20.6 151.1 97% 71–103 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Charleston +9.9 139.1 81% 61–93 ✓
Elon @ North Carolina A&T +5.7 145.7 70% 61–66 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +17.0 138.5 94% 72–86 ✓
Drexel @ Delaware +1.5 131.4 56% 58–54 ✗
Central Connecticut @ Hartford -6.0 127.0 29% 82–73 ✓
Tulsa @ Houston +31.1 135.3 100% 42–80 ✓
Georgetown @ Providence +18.0 151.3 95% 62–74 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State +7.3 133.6 75% 68–71 ✓
UCF @ Wichita State -2.2 129.5 42% 72–67 ✓
Temple @ SMU -1.5 139.9 45% 71–72 ✗
UIC @ Southern Illinois +13.5 126.5 89% 66–68 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Evansville -8.6 138.0 22% 59–71 ✗
Bradley @ Illinois State -8.2 130.4 23% 79–61 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Valley +9.0 133.6 79% 55–71 ✓
DePaul @ Villanova +9.1 142.0 80% 65–81 ✓
Wisconsin @ Penn State +5.1 128.4 68% 79–74 ✗
Florida @ Alabama +13.1 147.8 88% 69–97 ✓
Oklahoma @ Baylor +9.5 142.6 81% 72–82 ✓
LSU @ Mississippi State +11.1 120.0 84% 53–64 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Loyola Chicago +0.4 142.3 51% 83–71 ✗
New Mexico State @ Grand Canyon +7.2 144.1 74% 67–78 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +1.6 150.7 56% 63–61 ✗
Utah Tech @ Seattle U +6.3 146.0 72% 71–75 ✓
UNLV @ Wyoming -3.4 147.0 38% 69–59 ✓
Wagner @ St. Francis Brooklyn -2.7 121.8 40% 62–64 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Saint Francis +2.2 152.1 58% 76–78 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.