Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ALA -600 FLA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +28 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -12.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.4 (+16.6) | 151.4 (+14.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -11.4 (+16.6) | 152.9 (+13.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -13.2 (+14.8) | 149.9 (+16.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -11.7 (+16.3) | 150.1 (+15.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | FLA 100 – 77 ALA |
| Mar 15, 2025 | FLA 104 – 82 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2025 | FLA 99 – 94 ALA |
| Mar 16, 2024 | FLA 102 – 88 ALA |
| Mar 6, 2024 | FLA 105 – 87 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 19.9 (#3) | 11.2 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#2) | 1.52 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.12 (#3) | 2.02 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.671 (#1) | 0.566 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 44.9 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.4% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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