Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | UPST -188 CHSO +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +17 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -1.8 (+15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -0.5 (+16.5) | 141.0 (-4.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -2.9 (+14.1) | 140.9 (-3.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -1.7 (+15.3) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -1.4 (+15.6) | 142.1 (-5.1) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UPST 100 – 94 CHSO |
| Jan 15, 2026 | UPST 86 – 81 CHSO |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UPST 79 – 69 CHSO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CHSO 82 – 75 UPST |
| Feb 22, 2024 | CHSO 63 – 60 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#293) | -5.3 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#265) | -1.57 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#275) | -1.69 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#283) | 0.424 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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