Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -1200 GTWN +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -17.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -16.4 (-4.4) | 152.9 (-16.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -17.9 (-5.9) | 152.7 (-16.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -15.9 (-3.9) | 150.6 (-14.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -15.9 (-3.9) | 152.3 (-16.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 2-18 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-12 |
| Away | 6-6 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#32) | -2.3 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#26) | -0.91 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#21) | -0.97 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#42) | 0.439 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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