Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -188 JOES +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +12 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -0.1 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -0.2 (-11.8) | 142.7 (+11.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -1.6 (-13.6) | 142.1 (+11.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -0.4 (-12.4) | 141.7 (+12.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.1 (-11.9) | 142.8 (+11.2) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | JOES 75 – 61 LUC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | JOES 85 – 64 LUC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LUC 58 – 55 JOES |
| Jan 11, 2025 | JOES 93 – 57 LUC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | LUC 64 – 59 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#257) | -1.5 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#259) | -0.48 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#250) | -0.61 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#279) | 0.480 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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