Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GT -111 ND -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | GT -2.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -1.1 (+0.9) | 140.3 (-2.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -0.3 (+1.7) | 137.5 (+0.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -1.3 (+0.7) | 139.2 (-1.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -1.3 (+0.7) | 140.2 (-2.2) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | ND 89 – 74 GT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | ND 71 – 68 GT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | GT 86 – 75 ND |
| Mar 12, 2024 | ND 84 – 80 GT |
| Feb 15, 2024 | ND 58 – 55 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#214) | -1.2 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#210) | -0.28 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#200) | -0.24 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#237) | 0.473 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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