Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | INST -800 VAL +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +22 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | INST -15.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -13.9 (+8.1) | 150.7 (-4.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -10.1 (+11.9) | 151.3 (-5.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -13.5 (+8.5) | 150.5 (-4.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -13.1 (+8.9) | 150.4 (-4.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | VAL 63 – 62 INST |
| Feb 15, 2026 | VAL 76 – 75 INST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | VAL 76 – 72 INST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | INST 80 – 62 VAL |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VAL 98 – 95 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#95) | -6.4 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#145) | -0.95 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#144) | -1.24 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#160) | 0.442 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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