Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | USU -175 SDSU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -2.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -2.7 (-4.7) | 147.2 (-23.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -2.2 (-4.2) | 144.7 (-20.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -2.9 (-4.9) | 147.1 (-23.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -2.7 (-4.7) | 147.8 (-23.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#36) | 12.8 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#28) | 2.34 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#26) | 2.85 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#15) | 0.629 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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