Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -500 DEP +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -9.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -8.1 (+7.9) | 141.4 (+4.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -8.2 (+7.8) | 141.7 (+4.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -8.2 (+7.8) | 141.7 (+4.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -8.1 (+7.9) | 141.0 (+5.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | VILL 76 – 57 DEP |
| Dec 31, 2025 | VILL 71 – 66 DEP |
| Feb 6, 2025 | VILL 59 – 49 DEP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VILL 100 – 56 DEP |
| Mar 14, 2024 | VILL 58 – 57 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#84) | 0.7 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.60 (#118) | 0.22 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#101) | 0.28 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#145) | 0.498 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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