Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -300 NMSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -7.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -5.4 (+5.6) | 149.7 (-4.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -6.2 (+4.8) | 145.0 (+0.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -5.7 (+5.3) | 149.0 (-4.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -6.0 (+5.0) | 150.1 (-5.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2022 | NMSU 75 – 70 GCU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | NMSU 82 – 66 GCU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | NMSU 71 – 61 GCU |
| Mar 14, 2021 | GCU 74 – 56 NMSU |
| Jan 31, 2021 | GCU 65 – 53 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#115) | -0.5 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#110) | -0.47 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#119) | -0.41 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#103) | 0.481 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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