Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -125 NMSU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -10.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -12.3 (-0.3) | 132.3 (-14.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -9.0 (+3.0) | 127.7 (-9.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -11.7 (+0.3) | 131.9 (-13.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -12.7 (-0.7) | 131.6 (-13.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2023 | GCU 78 – 67 NMSU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | NMSU 75 – 70 GCU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | NMSU 82 – 66 GCU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | NMSU 71 – 61 GCU |
| Mar 14, 2021 | GCU 74 – 56 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 9-3 | 7-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 3-2 |
| Away | 5-1 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#118) | -3.9 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#169) | -2.14 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#144) | -2.94 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#230) | 0.334 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 31.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 21.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 36.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 35.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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