Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +16 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -2.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -2.7 (-18.7) | 132.4 (+15.6) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -2.7 (-18.7) | 134.0 (+14.0) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -2.7 (-18.7) | 132.3 (+15.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -2.6 (-18.6) | 133.4 (+14.6) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2023 | GCU 78 – 67 NMSU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | NMSU 75 – 70 GCU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | NMSU 71 – 61 GCU |
| Mar 14, 2021 | GCU 74 – 56 NMSU |
| Jan 31, 2021 | GCU 65 – 53 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-8 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#94) | 5.6 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#90) | 1.95 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#92) | 1.95 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#96) | 0.601 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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