Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | GCU +110 NMSU -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -3.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -2.5 (+15.5) | 128.0 (+2.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -1.5 (+16.5) | 127.5 (+2.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -2.5 (+15.5) | 128.7 (+1.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -2.7 (+15.3) | 129.7 (+0.3) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2023 | GCU 78 – 67 NMSU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | NMSU 75 – 70 GCU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | NMSU 82 – 66 GCU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | NMSU 71 – 61 GCU |
| Jan 31, 2021 | GCU 65 – 53 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 12-8 |
| Conference | 9-3 | 7-6 |
| Home | 10-3 | 3-2 |
| Away | 5-1 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#107) | 1.3 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#183) | -0.84 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#160) | -0.79 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#146) | 0.484 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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