Betting Lines
| Spread | NMSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | NMSU -140 GCU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NMSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NMSU +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | NMSU -0.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NMSU -0.2 (+4.8) | 130.9 (+14.1) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -0.4 (+5.4) | 130.1 (+14.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NMSU -0.7 (+4.3) | 132.4 (+12.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NMSU -0.7 (+4.3) | 131.0 (+14.0) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2023 | GCU 78 – 67 NMSU |
| Feb 20, 2022 | NMSU 82 – 66 GCU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | NMSU 71 – 61 GCU |
| Mar 14, 2021 | GCU 74 – 56 NMSU |
| Jan 31, 2021 | GCU 65 – 53 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NMSU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 23-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 10-3 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 62.0 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#89) | 6.2 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#55) | 1.26 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#61) | 1.45 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#36) | 0.543 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NMSU | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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