Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | COFC -500 UNCW +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +32 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -10.2 (+21.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -8.9 (+23.1) | 138.9 (+15.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -8.8 (+23.2) | 139.5 (+14.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -9.6 (+22.4) | 139.6 (+14.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -9.4 (+22.6) | 139.2 (+14.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-4 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 12-6 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 11-2 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#73) | 0.8 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#35) | 1.27 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#41) | 1.45 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#45) | 0.558 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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