Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -350 BUCK +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -9.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -9.1 (-3.1) | 134.8 (+1.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -8.7 (-2.7) | 134.3 (+1.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -8.9 (-2.9) | 136.3 (-0.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -8.3 (-2.3) | 136.2 (-0.2) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NAVY 74 – 69 BUCK |
| Feb 9, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 60 BUCK |
| Jan 8, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 55 BUCK |
| Mar 9, 2025 | NAVY 83 – 77 BUCK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BUCK 85 – 75 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#185) | -6.9 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#232) | -1.69 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#234) | -2.05 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#197) | 0.418 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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