Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | FOR -275 MASS +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -5.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -4.3 (+5.7) | 145.3 (-1.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -5.0 (+5.0) | 145.3 (-1.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -5.4 (+4.6) | 146.4 (-2.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -5.1 (+4.9) | 146.5 (-2.5) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | MASS 120 – 118 FOR |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MASS 66 – 64 FOR |
| Mar 3, 2022 | MASS 81 – 73 FOR |
| Mar 1, 2022 | FOR 85 – 73 MASS |
| Feb 3, 2021 | MASS 60 – 54 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 18-2 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#147) | -0.3 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#80) | 0.28 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#104) | 0.31 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#95) | 0.522 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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