Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +12 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -3.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -1.1 (+10.9) | 145.6 (+12.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -2.8 (+9.2) | 144.9 (+13.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -2.9 (+9.1) | 146.0 (+12.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -2.3 (+9.7) | 146.0 (+12.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2025 | MASS 120 – 118 FOR |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MASS 66 – 64 FOR |
| Feb 9, 2023 | FOR 77 – 67 MASS |
| Mar 3, 2022 | MASS 81 – 73 FOR |
| Feb 3, 2021 | MASS 60 – 54 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 78.1 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#184) | -1.5 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#188) | -0.13 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#182) | -0.20 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#194) | 0.494 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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