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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–9 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
@
Tulane
|
+0.8 | 155.3 | 53% | 94–101 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Delaware State
|
-3.6 | 134.4 | 37% | 60–66 | ✗ |
North Carolina
@
Wake Forest
|
+0.0 | 159.1 | 50% | 85–92 | ✓ |
Louisville
@
Pittsburgh
|
+19.6 | 136.8 | 96% | 57–91 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Texas A&M
|
+2.2 | 138.0 | 58% | 78–83 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Georgia
|
+2.5 | 133.8 | 59% | 78–74 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
VCU
|
+2.7 | 125.7 | 60% | 62–58 | ✗ |
East Tennessee State
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+9.8 | 123.1 | 81% | 65–91 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Central Michigan
|
-6.1 | 139.9 | 29% | 65–51 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Buffalo
|
+13.0 | 165.7 | 88% | 97–102 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Miami (OH)
|
+3.7 | 150.6 | 63% | 78–85 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Akron
|
+4.5 | 151.3 | 66% | 84–74 | ✗ |
Bowling Green
@
Kent State
|
+16.6 | 143.3 | 93% | 64–87 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Murray State
|
-4.2 | 141.5 | 35% | 92–68 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Northern Illinois
|
-2.1 | 149.1 | 42% | 82–76 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Butler
|
+3.2 | 145.2 | 61% | 66–68 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Virginia
|
+6.9 | 136.7 | 73% | 50–63 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Kansas State
|
+3.0 | 148.0 | 61% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Michigan State
|
+0.1 | 129.0 | 50% | 58–63 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Missouri
|
+19.0 | 151.0 | 96% | 74–83 | ✓ |
Arkansas
@
Kentucky
|
+2.4 | 141.5 | 58% | 88–73 | ✗ |
Rhode Island
@
Saint Louis
|
+11.3 | 143.5 | 85% | 71–76 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Air Force
|
+1.3 | 138.0 | 55% | 69–53 | ✗ |
San José State
@
Fresno State
|
-0.8 | 121.7 | 47% | 62–70 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
New Mexico
|
+3.7 | 149.9 | 63% | 77–76 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Army
|
+11.3 | 138.0 | 85% | 70–76 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Northeastern
|
-7.5 | 142.1 | 25% | 72–53 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Seton Hall
|
-1.5 | 132.3 | 45% | 75–62 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Michigan
|
+7.4 | 136.3 | 75% | 72–93 | ✓ |
Winthrop
@
UNC Asheville
|
+7.8 | 147.6 | 76% | 79–86 | ✓ |
Monmouth
@
Stony Brook
|
+7.2 | 127.8 | 74% | 61–54 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.