Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -300 NCSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +13 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -5.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.2 (+6.8) | 137.8 (-24.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -6.2 (+6.8) | 132.6 (-19.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.4 (+6.6) | 140.5 (-27.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -5.9 (+7.1) | 140.8 (-27.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UVA 81 – 74 NCSU |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UVA 90 – 61 NCSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UVA 76 – 61 NCSU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UVA 70 – 67 NCSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | NCSU 73 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#23) | 10.5 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#13) | 2.38 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.59 (#7) | 2.68 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#12) | 0.586 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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