Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | AF +100 CSU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +16 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -1.2 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -0.1 (-16.1) | 138.0 (-16.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -0.1 (-15.9) | 135.1 (-13.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -0.6 (-16.6) | 137.7 (-15.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AF -0.5 (-16.5) | 138.4 (-16.4) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | CSU 91 – 74 AF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | CSU 81 – 52 AF |
| Feb 26, 2025 | CSU 77 – 55 AF |
| Jan 29, 2025 | CSU 79 – 58 AF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CSU 82 – 73 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-9 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#156) | 3.0 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#177) | 0.01 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#170) | -0.03 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#233) | 0.508 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 5.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 22.3% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.