Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -120 TOL +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +10 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -4.1 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -4.1 (-14.1) | 150.3 (+7.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -2.9 (-12.9) | 146.7 (+11.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -3.5 (-13.5) | 149.6 (+8.4) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -3.4 (-13.4) | 151.1 (+6.9) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#93) | 4.6 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#88) | 0.80 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#103) | 0.90 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#91) | 0.537 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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