Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -500 ETSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +26 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -9.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (+33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -8.7 (+17.3) | 130.8 (+25.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -7.6 (+18.4) | 130.1 (+25.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -7.8 (+18.2) | 131.0 (+25.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -8.3 (+17.7) | 130.4 (+25.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#124) | -3.5 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#135) | -1.58 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#129) | -1.59 (#291) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#98) | 0.421 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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