Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MUR +130 DRKE -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +24 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -3.9 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -3.1 (-20.9) | 147.4 (+12.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -2.3 (-21.7) | 145.4 (+14.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -2.8 (-21.2) | 146.4 (+13.6) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -4.4 (-19.6) | 147.4 (+12.6) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | DRKE 101 – 90 MUR |
| Dec 19, 2025 | MUR 81 – 72 DRKE |
| Feb 5, 2025 | DRKE 55 – 45 MUR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MUR 66 – 59 DRKE |
| Feb 18, 2024 | DRKE 95 – 72 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 64.4 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#210) | 5.6 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#153) | 1.22 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#166) | 1.50 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#164) | 0.570 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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