Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | DRKE +170 MUR -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +11 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -4.9 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.4 (+28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -3.6 (+14.6) | 154.9 (+36.1) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -5.4 (+16.4) | 152.6 (+38.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -4.7 (+15.7) | 154.7 (+36.3) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -5.5 (+16.5) | 154.8 (+36.2) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | MUR 81 – 72 DRKE |
| Feb 5, 2025 | DRKE 55 – 45 MUR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MUR 66 – 59 DRKE |
| Feb 18, 2024 | DRKE 95 – 72 MUR |
| Mar 4, 2023 | DRKE 74 – 62 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-8 |
| Home | 6-11 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#165) | 8.3 (#77) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#222) | 1.80 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#214) | 2.14 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#218) | 0.570 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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