Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Under |
| Money | MUR +165 DRKE -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +10 | 100 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -4.8 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -5.4 (-4.6) | 126.5 (-26.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -5.3 (-4.7) | 131.5 (-31.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -4.5 (-5.5) | 131.6 (-31.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -3.9 (-6.1) | 127.8 (-27.8) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | DRKE 101 – 90 MUR |
| Dec 19, 2025 | MUR 81 – 72 DRKE |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MUR 66 – 59 DRKE |
| Feb 18, 2024 | DRKE 95 – 72 MUR |
| Mar 4, 2023 | DRKE 74 – 62 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 17-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 60.2 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#166) | 8.0 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#169) | 2.52 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#168) | 2.88 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#161) | 0.597 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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