Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -340 DRKE +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -9.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.6 (-16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -7.8 (+1.2) | 157.6 (-4.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -8.3 (+0.7) | 158.3 (-5.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -8.2 (+0.8) | 158.0 (-5.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -8.2 (+0.8) | 157.4 (-4.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | DRKE 101 – 90 MUR |
| Feb 5, 2025 | DRKE 55 – 45 MUR |
| Jan 5, 2025 | MUR 66 – 59 DRKE |
| Feb 18, 2024 | DRKE 95 – 72 MUR |
| Mar 4, 2023 | DRKE 74 – 62 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-11 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#78) | 2.9 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#88) | -0.87 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#97) | -0.47 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#140) | 0.468 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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