Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | NIU +188 OHIO -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +6 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -2.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -1.8 (-4.2) | 151.7 (+6.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -3.9 (-2.1) | 148.3 (+9.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -0.8 (-5.2) | 150.3 (+7.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -1.0 (-5.0) | 151.9 (+6.1) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | OHIO 74 – 66 NIU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OHIO 80 – 77 NIU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OHIO 108 – 70 NIU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | OHIO 80 – 59 NIU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#255) | 0.6 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#229) | -0.18 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#232) | -0.17 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#225) | 0.486 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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