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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–4 on winners
spread MAE 11.1
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Duke
@
Miami
|
+1.2 | 144.1 | 54% | 59–81 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Holy Cross
|
-1.3 | 122.3 | 45% | 72–58 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
Milwaukee
|
+22.4 | 140.6 | 98% | 80–79 | ✗ |
Idaho State
@
Northern Arizona
|
+3.4 | 144.4 | 62% | 75–70 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Alabama A&M
|
-3.8 | 135.0 | 37% | 66–60 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+11.5 | 123.5 | 85% | 45–75 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Jackson State
|
+3.0 | 141.1 | 61% | 84–88 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Alabama State
|
-6.0 | 141.2 | 29% | 66–73 | ✗ |
Texas
@
Kansas
|
+2.1 | 147.8 | 58% | 80–88 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Texas Southern
|
+7.9 | 147.7 | 76% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alcorn State
|
+13.1 | 136.0 | 88% | 70–81 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Northern Colorado
|
-0.3 | 140.6 | 49% | 54–88 | ✗ |
Marquette
@
UConn
|
+6.7 | 153.5 | 73% | 72–87 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Indiana
|
+2.1 | 131.8 | 58% | 60–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.