Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | HC +110 LAF -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +14 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -1.7 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.7 (-11.3) | 130.0 (+0.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -3.3 (-10.7) | 131.5 (-1.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -1.8 (-12.2) | 129.1 (+0.9) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -2.0 (-12.0) | 130.3 (-0.3) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | HC 82 – 77 LAF |
| Feb 18, 2026 | LAF 86 – 83 HC |
| Jan 17, 2026 | LAF 74 – 55 HC |
| Mar 5, 2025 | LAF 69 – 68 HC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | HC 74 – 69 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 5-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#333) | -4.7 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#330) | -1.55 (#313) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.15 (#327) | -1.71 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#322) | 0.443 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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