Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -700 MVSU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -13.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -11.0 (-0.0) | 139.6 (+11.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -11.1 (-0.1) | 135.6 (+15.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -11.0 (+0.0) | 137.6 (+13.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -11.1 (-0.1) | 138.8 (+12.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-2 | 4-6 |
| Away | 10-10 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#276) | -15.6 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#182) | -2.57 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#186) | -3.08 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#193) | 0.378 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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