Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -3000 MVSU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +47 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -22.0 (+25.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -20.7 (+26.3) | 127.7 (-2.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -18.3 (+28.7) | 130.5 (-5.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -17.3 (+29.7) | 128.4 (-3.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -18.0 (+29.0) | 129.7 (-4.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
| Feb 13, 2024 | ALCN 72 – 55 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 1-17 |
| Home | 6-3 | 2-9 |
| Away | 5-17 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 52.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 82.3 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#333) | -30.2 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#320) | -4.31 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#309) | -5.65 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#309) | 0.363 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 27.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 40.8% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 59.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 60.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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