Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -2500 MVSU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -19.1 (-12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -16.3 (-9.3) | 133.5 (+7.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -15.6 (-8.6) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -15.4 (-8.4) | 136.8 (+4.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -15.8 (-8.8) | 135.5 (+5.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Feb 13, 2024 | ALCN 72 – 55 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 1-30 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 1-17 |
| Home | 7-3 | 1-8 |
| Away | 7-14 | 0-22 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 55.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#303) | -23.9 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#257) | -4.08 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#262) | -4.93 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#208) | 0.368 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 41.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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