Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -550 MVSU +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -12.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -10.6 (-7.6) | 141.7 (-10.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -9.6 (-6.6) | 139.0 (-8.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -11.1 (-8.1) | 140.4 (-9.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -9.4 (-6.4) | 142.2 (-11.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
| Feb 13, 2024 | ALCN 72 – 55 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 3-30 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 2-16 |
| Home | 5-4 | 2-9 |
| Away | 2-18 | 1-18 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -16.6 (#355) | -25.6 (#365) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#330) | -3.70 (#363) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#334) | -5.46 (#365) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#346) | 0.343 (#365) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 37.0% |
Game Analysis
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