Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +400 ALCN -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +17 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -10.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -10.7 (-6.3) | 132.9 (-5.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -9.9 (-7.1) | 133.4 (-6.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -9.6 (-7.4) | 129.5 (-2.5) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -10.8 (-6.2) | 133.0 (-6.0) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1-30 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 13-5 |
| Home | 1-8 | 7-3 |
| Away | 0-22 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 55.5 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -23.7 (#363) | -9.9 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.89 (#363) | -1.27 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.48 (#363) | -1.66 (#298) |
| RPI | 0.362 (#361) | 0.446 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.51 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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