Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +200 ALCN -245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +8 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -6.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -5.4 (-2.6) | 139.8 (+0.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -4.8 (-3.2) | 137.7 (+2.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -6.2 (-1.8) | 138.2 (+1.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -6.8 (-1.2) | 138.3 (+1.7) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
| Feb 13, 2024 | ALCN 72 – 55 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-30 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 7-11 |
| Home | 2-9 | 5-4 |
| Away | 1-18 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -26.2 (#365) | -17.2 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -5.01 (#365) | -2.00 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.58 (#365) | -2.61 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.322 (#364) | 0.395 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 63.2% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.2% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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