Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU +1300 ALCN -4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -18.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -14.5 (+6.5) | 128.4 (+7.6) | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -14.0 (+6.0) | 131.1 (+4.9) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -14.1 (+6.1) | 128.8 (+7.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -13.0 (+5.0) | 126.9 (+9.1) | 11% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
| Feb 13, 2024 | ALCN 72 – 55 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-28 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 2-9 | 6-3 |
| Away | 1-19 | 5-17 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L9 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 52.4 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -31.9 (#364) | -10.4 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -5.13 (#364) | -1.81 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.72 (#364) | -2.17 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#361) | 0.440 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 27.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.46 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 23.3% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 61.5% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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