Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -150 IDST +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -3.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -1.7 (-6.7) | 146.5 (-1.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -2.4 (-7.4) | 144.8 (+0.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -2.0 (-7.0) | 146.2 (-1.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -1.9 (-6.9) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#253) | -4.7 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#303) | -1.34 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#292) | -1.17 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#321) | 0.420 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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