Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | ALST +260 SOU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -6.2 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -4.8 (+11.8) | 140.2 (-1.2) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.6 (+12.6) | 138.1 (+0.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -5.1 (+12.1) | 139.0 (+0.0) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -5.5 (+12.5) | 139.4 (-0.4) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-5 | 9-2 |
| Away | 2-18 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#349) | -3.1 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#341) | -0.54 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#340) | -0.89 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#349) | 0.484 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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